Chapter 22 Power PoliticsIn 1997 New Radicals will outnumber Old Guard by ten to one; Why this will not happen; Countermoves by Old Guard; Rise of Ideologues; Election forecasts 1988-97.
What would we see in Sweden if the trends of the past three elections were allowed to run their course? What if the cunning of man were to be kept at bay and held ineffective by some greater wisdom? What would be the consequences?The old religions would continue to preach to the converted. Too old and too long in the tooth to comprehend the shifting of the foundations upon which they once built so strong, they will fail to see that a New Left has arisen. They will fail to learn the lessons of political history. And so they would disappear without a trace leaving the stage clear for the rise of a new establishment.
At first the new establishment will be radical. For a while it would horse-trade among itself. It would deliver on its promises. Environment, energy, economics would all see fundamental change, for in these three interlocked political domains consensus would be possible among those of the New Left, and victory would be achievable whatever the posture of the Old Guard. Perhaps we mortal men should seek no greater ambition in our political lifetime than this? Sufficient unto our day be the evil thereof.
But let us persevere and take our trends on through into the 1990s. This then scaled up for the whole country is how we might envisage the coming good and bad days for Sweden’s political parties. Here are the trend projections for the Stockholm City Region.
Figure 13: Trend Projection of Seats for Stockholm 1988-1997 The Old Guard (Right) The New Radicals (Left) S M Fp C Total Kds Vpk Mp Total 1982 26 23 4 5 58 - 7 - 7 1985 25 20 11 3 59 - 6 - 6 1988 23 18 11 3 55 - 7 5 12 1991 18 15 4 3 40 2 9 14 25 1994 8 7 3 2 20 5 15 20 40 1997 - 5 - - 5 10 10 30 50 Nothing of the sort will happen of course. Politicians unlike structuralists are the most flexible of creatures. They can fool lots of the people lots of the time. Their currency is not ideas but power, and they never use hard currency, theirs or anybody else’s. They make only promises to pay. And these continue to work just as long as there is no run on the bank.
Structuralists reach their positions from welding together their theories and their premises. Politicians are quite different. Like the Sophists of ancient Greece, the politician deploys his words, not to enlighten but to confuse. His ideas do not reveal but mask his intentions.
We could begin to see the sign of things to come as early as the 1985 election. It had gathered pace by 1988. Within the Conservative Party Carl Bildt was moving his rhetoric to the conviction politics of Thatcherism. Meanwhile Kjell-Olof Feldt was moving to counter these moves by floating the privatisation heresy amidst the gathered ranks of the Labour faithful. The Old Guard will not roll over and play dead. Since when has a political party given up power without a last desperate lunge to retain it?
Ideological shock troopers will be deployed from the Labour and Tory think tanks to spin the web of illusion . There will be an appearance of ideas clashing. The old books will come out with new bindings. Tweedledum will boldly challenge Tweedledee. History will repeat itself ass the Battle of the Books gets underway.
We can also think
We know these ideas of yours
We have seen them before
We dismissed them then
Nothing has changed
They were unworkable once
They cannot stand up in the real world Trust us
Only we are safe to govern.The result will be confusion. Minds will be swayed first this way then that. Whatever works will be the coinage of the day. But it will be issued with the strident tone of conviction by the New Ideologues.
Politicians will fade from the political scene to be replaced by that most dangerous of creature: the one who has no doubts. From such a bed have many a tyrant risen.
These will be dangerous times. Intolerance and revolution will be in the air. Social dislocations and economic crises will add spice to the brew.
How will our numbers look now?
Figure 14: Forecast Stockholm Seats by Party Category 1988-1997 Politicians Structuralists Ideologues S1 M1 Fp C Total Kds Vpk Mp Total S2 M2 Total 1982 26 23 4 5 58 - 7 - 7 - - - 1985 25 20 11 3 59 - 6 - 6 - - - 1988 23 18 11 3 55 - 7 5 12 - - - 1991 18 15 4 - 37 2 9 12 23 2 3 5 1994 8 - - - 8 5 11 16 31 10 11 21 1997 - - - - - 7 11 10 28 12 17 27 Will anything of this sort take place? You would have to be a gambling man to put your shirt on it. And who is the one to dismiss the workings of chance as it strikes down one leader and pushes another into the limelight? And what strange happenings that no one can foresee may impose themselves upon this tiny land?